realcryptoleek
0x9b8709ea9f1c9d96b680cbedbd1511c75e06aa96
- Realised P&L
- $510.12
- Volume
- $8.1k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $30.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.120 | $18.60 | −$8.04 |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.033 | $6.50 | +$1.70 |
| Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $3.25 | −$1.25 |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.004 | $1.35 | −$9.75 |
| Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.015 | $0.31 | −$1.09 |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.003 | $0.05 | −$1.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$396.30at 0.298Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?
- +$61.60at 0.720US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
- +$50.30at 0.601US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
- +$49.00at 0.020Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5
- +$44.63at 0.916Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-08 05:55 | Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.026 | $2.60 |
| 03-08 05:45 | Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? | SELL | 0.034 | $0.16 |
| 02-02 08:59 | Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? | BUY | 0.9158960567 | $436.43 |
| 12-15 00:49 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.48 | $19.20 |
| 12-04 02:41 | Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 | SELL | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 12-04 01:03 | Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 | BUY | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 12-03 03:03 | Trail Blazers vs. Raptors | SELL | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 12-03 01:03 | Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 15? | SELL | 0.21 | $7.68 |
| 12-02 10:54 | Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | SELL | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 12-02 01:12 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.84 |
| 12-01 19:27 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.57 |
| 11-30 02:53 | Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.63 |
| 11-29 04:56 | Suns vs. Thunder | SELL | 0.005 | $0.17 |
| 11-28 00:20 | Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? | SELL | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 11-27 02:24 | Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | SELL | 0.47 | $4.70 |