0x9b35b6c0bA7F4eA9d27F16dCdFd7D4D13E12F5dD-1768756499429
0x9b35b6c0ba7f4ea9d27f16dcdfd7d4d13e12f5dd
- Realised P&L
- $24.5k
- Volume
- $121.6k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $222.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar20.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · Yes | 0.473 | 0.090 | $222.70 | −$948.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.7kat 0.724MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$6.5kat 0.783Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
- +$1.4kat 0.778Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?
- +$521.51at 0.824MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9?
- +$229.54at 0.978Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-31 01:08 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7317366095 | $165.58 |
| 05-31 01:07 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7312194171 | $11.9k |
| 05-30 23:55 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7327937162 | $7.7k |
| 05-30 14:39 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6956037249 | $11.4k |
| 05-30 14:39 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7096921937 | $9.2k |
| 04-17 15:27 | Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | BUY | 0.474519706 | $4.0k |
| 02-16 11:25 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? | BUY | 0.990441501 | $9.7k |
| 02-07 17:22 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9? | BUY | 0.8573048096 | $1.5k |
| 01-18 21:59 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? | BUY | 0.7780659537 | $4.8k |
| 01-18 17:18 | Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | BUY | 0.7988899157 | $20.4k |
| 01-18 17:17 | Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | BUY | 0.7173967068 | $1.8k |