LynBean
0x9b09abd59199df55aa110b5485fae7dcfb314f51
- Realised P&L
- $-192.05
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 416
- Open portfolio
- $15.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded416
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Citibank" in September? · No | 0.870 | 0.950 | $4.75 | +$0.40 |
| Will Trump say "Meta" in September? · No | 0.500 | 0.665 | $3.33 | +$0.82 |
| Will Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" in September? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.595 | $2.98 | +$0.28 |
| Will Trump say "Goldman Sachs" in September? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.295 | $1.48 | −$2.38 |
| Will Trump say "Qualcomm" in September? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.245 | $1.23 | −$0.17 |
| Will Trump say "Boeing" in September? · No | 0.170 | 0.220 | $1.10 | +$0.25 |
| Will Trump say "Epstein" in September? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.110 | $0.55 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.07at 0.036Will Trump say "Mount Rushmore" this week?
- +$6.87at 0.190Will Trump say "Uranium" in July?
- +$6.68at 0.290Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during RNC Convention?
- +$5.75at 0.170Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?
- +$4.90at 0.213Will Trump say "Fake News" during Tribute to America Rally?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 04:10 | Will Trump say "Cocaine" in August? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.30 |
| 08-27 02:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET | BUY | 0.0716140005 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 02:23 | Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? | SELL | 0.34 | $0.65 |
| 08-27 02:22 | Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during remarks at NASA? | SELL | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 08-27 02:20 | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during remarks at NASA? | SELL | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 08-27 02:19 | Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA? | SELL | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 08-27 02:16 | Will Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing? | SELL | 0.9 | $0.20 |
| 08-27 02:15 | Will Leavitt say "Pink" during the next White House Press Briefing? | SELL | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 08-27 02:15 | Will Leavitt say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? | SELL | 0.83 | $0.17 |
| 07-30 13:04 | Will Leavitt say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 07-28 04:36 | Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 17:01 | Will "Shocking" be in the headlines this week? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 06-18 06:10 | Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 06-18 06:10 | Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 06-18 06:10 | Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |