0x9Af7A7a2CDaf23079FF638c7F58Faf63E1749314-1768128922257
0x9af7a7a2cdaf23079ff638c7f58faf63e1749314
- Realised P&L
- $-5.7k
- Volume
- $324.0k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $10.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.060 | $9.21 | −$0.79 |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.025 | $1.10 | −$3.90 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.061 | $0.33 | −$1.42 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.105 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? · No | 0.288 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.4k |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? · No | 0.628 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.446US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$1.4kat 0.816Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.921Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- +$599.43at 0.475Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
- +$406.14at 0.856US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 13:33 | Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 13:33 | Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | BUY | 0.0609267829 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 16:14 | Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31? | BUY | 0.1159999981 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 16:08 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | SELL | 0.961 | $4.55 |
| 06-07 20:23 | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY | 0.6279999485 | $10.00 |
| 06-06 13:19 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.0299999943 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 13:17 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 13:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.979 | $1.05 |
| 06-06 13:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.05 |
| 06-06 13:17 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $1.25 |
| 04-30 12:16 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 04-30 12:16 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 07:43 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $10.00 |
| 04-29 07:42 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 04-27 18:46 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.00 |