PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x2AE66Ae3e3924AB676fbcF77659ffF8AD15ED8C1-1767463762456

0x9ae5280d0d96fd86a032a2d815ca3b406ca6dfb3

Realised P&L
$-8.70
Volume
$3.1k
Markets traded
19
Open portfolio
$6.24

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample11 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? · Dune 30.0750.028$2.54$4.38
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.2500.235$1.88$0.12
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0170.015$1.82$0.18
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? · Yes0.2800.000$0.00$5.00
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes0.0330.000$0.00$3.00
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04? · Yes0.0470.000$0.00$5.00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$5.00
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-16 12:35Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?BUY0.0749999905$6.92
08-16 12:34Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?SELL0.002$2.00
08-16 12:33Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?BUY0.003$3.00
08-16 12:33Israel closes its airspace by August 31?BUY0.0329999897$3.00
08-16 12:32Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.25$2.00
08-16 12:31Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0169999918$2.00
08-16 12:272026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseSELL0.49$3.34
07-09 00:17Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?SELL0.1890209021$10.31
07-09 00:12US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?BUY0.1899999726$5.00
07-09 00:11Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?BUY0.059999989$5.00
07-09 00:102026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.4399999707$3.00
07-07 17:06Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?BUY0.2799999731$5.00
07-06 17:36Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?BUY0.1099999848$6.00
07-06 17:35Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 9, 2026?SELL0.09$5.00
07-06 17:35Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026?SELL0.03$1.67