0x2AE66Ae3e3924AB676fbcF77659ffF8AD15ED8C1-1767463762456
0x9ae5280d0d96fd86a032a2d815ca3b406ca6dfb3
- Realised P&L
- $-8.70
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $6.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? · Dune 3 | 0.075 | 0.028 | $2.54 | −$4.38 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.235 | $1.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.015 | $1.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.63at 0.510Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$7.97at 0.470 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$4.31at 0.110Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
- +$2.80at 0.588Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
- +$0.86at 0.836Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 12:35 | Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? | BUY | 0.0749999905 | $6.92 |
| 08-16 12:34 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 12:33 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.00 |
| 08-16 12:33 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.0329999897 | $3.00 |
| 08-16 12:32 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 12:31 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0169999918 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 12:27 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.49 | $3.34 |
| 07-09 00:17 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.1890209021 | $10.31 |
| 07-09 00:12 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 00:11 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | BUY | 0.059999989 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 00:10 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.4399999707 | $3.00 |
| 07-07 17:06 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.2799999731 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 17:36 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999848 | $6.00 |
| 07-06 17:35 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 17:35 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.67 |