smi1e
0x9acd8d2bcabc675ef46e23d9fbb2f328cdb1a3fe
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $343.1k
- Markets traded
- 4,151
- Open portfolio
- $8.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,151
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$123.20at 0.942Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?
- +$117.21at 0.960Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
- +$75.79at 0.897Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
- +$60.72at 0.884Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
- +$52.72at 0.957Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:55 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on August 5? | SELL | 0.9 | $10.08 |
| 08-04 16:41 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or below on August 5? | BUY | 0.994 | $603.20 |
| 08-04 14:34 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.994 | $179.79 |
| 08-04 14:33 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.994 | $5.72 |
| 08-04 13:44 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.960625 | $15.37 |
| 08-04 13:43 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $246.75 |
| 08-04 13:39 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 5? | BUY | 0.996 | $633.23 |
| 08-04 13:38 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on August 5? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-04 13:37 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.995 | $79.60 |
| 08-04 13:27 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on August 6? | SELL | 0.971 | $1.96 |
| 08-04 13:26 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.94 | $66.65 |
| 08-04 13:26 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $107.36 |
| 08-04 13:25 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.989 | $59.34 |
| 08-04 13:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | SELL | 0.997 | $49.85 |
| 08-04 13:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | BUY | 0.966 | $48.30 |