0x9a74035C326De7B8A454574C79e0ea96fB90a908-1773856595180
0x9a74035c326de7b8a454574c79e0ea96fb90a908
- Realised P&L
- $14.29
- Volume
- $29.6k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $58.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? · Yes | 0.373 | 0.845 | $45.33 | +$25.33 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? · Yes | 0.655 | 0.160 | $12.21 | −$37.79 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Yair Lapid receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$140.83at 0.268Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
- +$15.46at 0.397Bills vs. Rams
- +$-99.99at 0.004Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 18:15 | Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.3727865797 | $20.00 |
| 10-28 18:15 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.6549516255 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 18:15 | Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 18:15 | Will Yair Lapid receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 18:15 | Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.0026925583 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 21:49 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999991 | $50.00 |
| 10-12 20:01 | Bills vs. Rams | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $10.00 |
| 04-02 15:22 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 03-23 18:29 | Iran leadership change by March 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 03-23 18:22 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.1267086759 | $12.00 |
| 03-18 18:11 | Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | BUY | 0.0037763242 | $100.00 |