rirwin
0x9a4ad88d688263429073e4103bdf7f435674ba21
- Realised P&L
- $-57.41
- Volume
- $20.6k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $40.88
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · No | 0.855 | 1.000 | $28.19 | +$4.09 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 18? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.435 | $12.69 | −$5.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.77at 0.610Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 1?
- +$2.53at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?
- +$0.75at 0.710Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$0.61at 0.963Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
- +$0.38at 0.985Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 19:54 | Will Janaina Riva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election? | BUY | 0.75 | $19.00 |
| 01-31 14:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $9.26 |
| 01-30 16:22 | Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.14 |
| 01-30 16:11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999421 | $8.50 |
| 01-30 15:14 | Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $14.88 |
| 01-30 14:22 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9979999883 | $42.79 |
| 12-30 17:43 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999584 | $1.92 |
| 12-30 16:50 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.32 |
| 12-30 14:34 | Maduro out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9959999376 | $12.65 |
| 12-30 12:34 | Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.94 |
| 12-29 23:53 | Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.12 |
| 12-29 21:55 | Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $32.41 |
| 10-30 18:17 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.45 |
| 10-30 17:51 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $24.85 |
| 09-29 18:39 | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.00 |