icewallowcome
0x9a232f10a4216bcdef1f8bdf7cb68d60ba4e66ef
- Realised P&L
- $615.33
- Volume
- $17.2k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $361.79
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.909 | 0.954 | $288.89 | +$13.63 |
| Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.762 | 0.865 | $72.90 | +$8.71 |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.10 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.10 |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.10 |
| Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$237.91at 0.639Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?
- +$112.10at 0.638Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$111.50at 0.661US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$74.10at 0.785Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31?
- +$57.59at 0.859US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 11:57 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.90 |
| 09-23 13:36 | Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.7616990982 | $64.20 |
| 09-23 13:12 | Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.94 | $89.13 |
| 09-23 12:53 | Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $55.80 |
| 09-23 12:28 | Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.8926835616 | $130.33 |
| 09-19 13:00 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.048952381 | $5.14 |
| 09-05 09:59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1710109442 | $36.88 |
| 09-04 20:46 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 09-04 20:41 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $39.60 |
| 09-04 20:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $28.00 |
| 08-19 18:21 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.00260435 | $1.56 |
| 08-14 16:40 | Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $36.52 |
| 07-31 17:11 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $48.00 |
| 07-29 15:37 | Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31? | BUY | 0.79 | $400.53 |
| 07-25 14:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $46.80 |