0x9a0a4851b5d1b8ddd20eb7cbc0f46339c29e489f
- Realised P&L
- $2.14
- Volume
- $205.36
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $4.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.500 | $2.27 | +$0.27 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.982 | $1.99 | +$0.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$2.03at 0.502Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 03:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 03:36 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 07:31 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 23:30 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 10:56 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 07:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 19:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 10:42 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 22:28 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 11:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999767 | $1.89 |
| 08-19 06:11 | Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? | BUY | 0.5729999427 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 20:20 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 11:47 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 13:04 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 03:09 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |