0x99c53b73173114ccEde2c07e8Ad02c988cd8D2FF-1788522263329
0x99c53b73173114ccede2c07e8ad02c988cd8d2ff
- Realised P&L
- $-20.03
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $24.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.925 | 0.945 | $6.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? · Yes | 0.985 | 0.997 | $6.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.983 | 0.995 | $3.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.970 | $3.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.991 | 0.993 | $3.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.992 | 0.990 | $2.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.45at 0.883Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?
- +$1.43at 0.964Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
- +$1.25at 0.937Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?
- +$0.92at 0.942Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.88at 0.952Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 14:04 | Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $2.98 |
| 10-28 12:15 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? | BUY | 0.9919998519 | $3.00 |
| 10-27 00:53 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.19 |
| 10-27 00:53 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.19 |
| 10-25 14:50 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.00 |
| 10-25 06:25 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.05 |
| 10-25 06:25 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.01 |
| 10-25 06:25 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.05 |
| 10-25 06:25 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.04 |
| 10-25 06:25 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.09 |
| 10-24 03:04 | Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $3.00 |
| 10-24 03:02 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9649997797 | $3.00 |
| 10-24 03:01 | Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $3.00 |
| 10-24 03:01 | Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.982999998 | $3.00 |
| 10-24 03:00 | Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9909997404 | $3.00 |