hexhorse
0x99c2d7f0506f74e5b46559748ccaf4592611123a
- Realised P&L
- $-350.17
- Volume
- $17.6k
- Markets traded
- 675
- Open portfolio
- $21.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded675
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 4? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.805 | $8.47 | +$4.26 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on October 5? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.170 | $5.10 | −$2.70 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on October 5? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.105 | $3.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 4? · No | 0.550 | 1.000 | $2.22 | +$1.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 5? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.035 | $1.42 | −$2.58 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on October 5? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.035 | $1.06 | −$1.94 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on October 5? · Yes | 0.155 | 0.011 | $0.42 | −$5.78 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 4? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.025 | $0.14 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.40at 0.380Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 29?
- +$34.37at 0.255Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 23?
- +$28.62at 0.096Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?
- +$28.03at 0.626Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 22?
- +$23.42at 0.575Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 23:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $2.51 |
| 10-03 23:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET | BUY | 0.7399999688 | $3.80 |
| 09-27 10:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.05 |
| 09-27 10:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | BUY | 0.76 | $3.80 |
| 09-25 11:15 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $51.81 |
| 09-24 12:41 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 09-24 07:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 09-24 05:53 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 24? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 09-24 05:19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 24? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 09-24 05:00 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 09-24 04:56 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 09-24 04:41 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 24? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 09-24 04:07 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 09-24 04:00 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 24? | BUY | 0.5699999017 | $2.84 |
| 09-24 03:53 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |