0x998b4e06F7aF6a57c91eC725782ECB641A92232E-1778450263355
0x998b4e06f7af6a57c91ec725782ecb641a92232e
- Realised P&L
- $33.16
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $82.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast's next video get at least 120 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.975 | $82.09 | +$2.06 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET · Down | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.25at 0.950Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?
- +$6.20at 0.937Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.27at 0.964Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?
- +$3.98at 0.933GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
- +$3.61at 0.933Will the US lose jobs in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 19:17 | Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | SELL | 0.87 | $62.12 |
| 10-18 02:31 | Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | BUY | 0.941 | $67.19 |
| 10-18 02:19 | Will MrBeast's next video get at least 120 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.95 | $80.03 |
| 10-14 16:01 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1? | BUY | 0.966 | $19.70 |
| 10-14 15:55 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1? | BUY | 0.962 | $122.66 |
| 10-13 08:55 | Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $44.85 |
| 10-13 08:55 | Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $9.65 |
| 10-11 13:44 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.948 | $4.74 |
| 10-11 13:44 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.948 | $113.76 |
| 07-22 15:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 15:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 15:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 15:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | BUY | 0.2799999731 | $5.00 |
| 07-22 15:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | SELL | 0.35 | $2.84 |
| 07-22 15:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |