asafharari
0x99895be43689e3370fae75e8f8bded743b1089bf
- Realised P&L
- $-239.68
- Volume
- $51.8k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$219.13at 0.321Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$206.95at 0.842Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
- +$193.10at 0.290US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$152.78at 0.360US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$132.31at 0.602US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:56 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.013411802 | $50.70 |
| 09-14 14:45 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | SELL | 0.991 | $135.87 |
| 09-13 17:53 | Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.8325476989 | $500.00 |
| 09-13 08:00 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.7293859746 | $100.00 |
| 09-12 09:53 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.0264513177 | $100.00 |
| 09-08 14:39 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? | BUY | 0.7816986017 | $200.00 |
| 09-05 19:33 | Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4947555907 | $100.00 |
| 09-05 19:31 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1636845907 | $100.00 |
| 09-02 17:14 | Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5386875606 | $100.00 |
| 08-26 15:44 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? | SELL | 0.9731236064 | $250.51 |
| 08-21 16:27 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8510550862 | $200.00 |
| 08-21 16:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999995 | $300.00 |
| 08-19 14:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.9828789946 | $178.70 |
| 08-17 16:25 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $300.00 |
| 08-17 16:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $293.10 |