4554yy30
0x9988077ba912c069c3a9111c3bae44f7906e7c96
- Realised P&L
- $-432.96
- Volume
- $7.1k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $62.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.656 | 0.700 | $62.29 | +$3.90 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET · Down | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.45 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET · Down | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.65 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.74at 0.885Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$4.63at 0.537Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
- +$2.10at 0.958Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5?
- +$1.24at 0.975Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
- +$0.44at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 23:38 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6682875536 | $46.71 |
| 08-07 13:20 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $44.00 |
| 07-28 11:59 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.974 | $48.70 |
| 07-28 11:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET | BUY | 0.51 | $7.65 |
| 06-27 11:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET | BUY | 0.52 | $5.20 |
| 06-27 11:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 06-05 13:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.97 |
| 06-05 13:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? | BUY | 0.955 | $47.75 |
| 06-02 12:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $50.54 |
| 06-02 11:23 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.024325 | $0.49 |
| 04-11 11:43 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $90.93 |
| 04-05 14:17 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.0320887435 | $25.31 |
| 04-04 01:50 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.169 | $5.42 |
| 04-04 01:43 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.1687059391 | $121.89 |
| 04-03 13:11 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.2175577315 | $174.20 |