ciktan
0x997c838c7b0f1b7e49290fc741f0c537a86c398e
- Realised P&L
- $-82.55
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $18.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.065 | $6.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.065 | $5.80 | −$3.83 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.041 | $3.01 | −$4.33 |
| Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.070 | $1.54 | −$1.76 |
| Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.011 | $0.88 | −$7.56 |
| Will Elise Stefanik announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.032 | $0.56 | −$1.58 |
| Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? · Yes | 0.204 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.57at 0.2302026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?
- +$11.45at 0.110Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$10.92at 0.0992026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?
- +$2.12at 0.260Named storm forms before hurricane season?
- +$1.39at 0.028Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 07:07 | Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.143 | $0.18 |
| 04-10 07:07 | Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.143 | $0.18 |
| 04-10 07:07 | Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.143 | $0.99 |
| 04-10 07:07 | Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.47 |
| 04-10 07:07 | Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.13 |
| 04-10 07:07 | Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.57 |
| 04-10 07:07 | Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.11 |
| 04-10 07:07 | Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.72 |
| 03-19 22:28 | Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.95 |
| 03-19 22:28 | Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? | SELL | 0.2755335968 | $6.97 |
| 03-19 22:28 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | SELL | 0.5 | $49.00 |
| 03-19 22:28 | Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.012 | $4.62 |
| 03-19 22:28 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.039 | $4.96 |
| 03-19 22:28 | Will Connor Burbridge be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? | SELL | 0.1 | $7.73 |
| 03-19 07:44 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $21.18 |