trabzon
0x996e85bd55d003ed9dfc099816f0b97e25b71087
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $21.2k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.093 | 0.915 | $1.2k | +$1.1k |
| Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.255 | $719.09 | +$259.88 |
| Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.180 | $164.22 | +$36.07 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.10 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$196.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$100.28at 0.399Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
- +$5.45at 0.002Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$1.07at 0.011Will Trabzonspor win the Süper Lig?
- +$0.29at 0.007Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.090Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-03 10:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.053 | $0.29 |
| 05-03 10:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.052 | $12.82 |
| 05-02 04:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | BUY | 0.13 | $9.10 |
| 05-01 18:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | BUY | 0.07 | $28.00 |
| 04-20 05:38 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.01 |
| 03-14 12:51 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $16.00 |
| 03-11 18:32 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $1.28 |
| 03-06 09:08 | Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $0.85 |
| 03-01 16:21 | Will Trabzonspor win the Süper Lig? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.20 |
| 02-12 18:08 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.002 | $4.25 |
| 02-12 18:07 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.002 | $4.25 |
| 02-10 16:54 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.002 | $8.43 |
| 01-21 17:12 | Will Trabzonspor win the Süper Lig? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.41 |
| 01-18 11:40 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.00 |
| 01-15 06:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0953212013 | $100.00 |