Ashbur111
0x9969878b398d9f0a2afd6a523b7a7bf7bf4f6e9b
- Realised P&L
- $-13.52
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $656.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No | 0.985 | 0.992 | $656.70 | +$4.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.40at 0.957Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.24at 0.888Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.00at 0.350Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
- +$-2.99at 0.858Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-5.82at 0.852Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 06:46 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.985 | $652.07 |
| 07-13 07:37 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.959 | $543.75 |
| 07-08 01:27 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.957 | $542.62 |
| 06-25 03:16 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.954 | $508.48 |
| 06-05 07:27 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $323.76 |
| 05-28 01:02 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? | SELL | 0.64 | $211.84 |
| 05-26 01:39 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $218.46 |
| 05-13 08:04 | Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.846 | $432.31 |
| 05-10 02:51 | Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.847 | $432.82 |
| 04-17 02:42 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.89 | $108.56 |
| 04-13 02:16 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8879999627 | $15.98 |
| 04-13 02:16 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.888 | $17.76 |
| 04-13 02:16 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8879999996 | $15.98 |
| 04-13 02:16 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8879999995 | $15.09 |
| 04-13 02:16 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.888 | $8.88 |