0x9940a54b0677b64c11e23a01bd895fc93fc501b0
- Realised P&L
- $-40.06
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $95.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.575 | 0.765 | $30.60 | +$7.60 |
| Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.179 | 0.310 | $25.14 | +$10.61 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.463 | 0.235 | $15.28 | −$14.82 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.275 | $14.71 | +$3.76 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.304 | 0.115 | $3.91 | −$6.42 |
| Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.170 | $3.40 | −$5.60 |
| Will Angie Craig win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? · Yes | 0.242 | 0.030 | $2.44 | −$16.96 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.12 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.88at 0.098Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$-4.77at 0.627Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?
- +$-7.80at 0.890Will Russia target Kyiv by August 31, 2026?
- +$-15.60at 0.760Will Alibaba have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?
- +$-34.00at 0.910Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 02:21 | Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.435 | $8.70 |
| 08-02 11:18 | Will Alibaba have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $6.80 |
| 08-02 11:17 | Will Alibaba have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 07-31 07:59 | Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.1295405405 | $4.79 |
| 07-31 07:21 | Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.60 |
| 07-28 07:52 | Will Russia target Kyiv by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $4.40 |
| 07-27 22:14 | Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 07-27 12:40 | Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30? | SELL | 0.5962125064 | $93.82 |
| 07-17 09:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.012 | $0.12 |