0x990143A127b59B52023f36EE9aE2cae854b6Fb07-1769096877194
0x990143a127b59b52023f36ee9ae2cae854b6fb07
- Realised P&L
- $-37.47
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $16.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CDU win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.120 | $6.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.135 | $5.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.515 | $5.15 | −$0.15 |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.36 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET · Up | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.89 |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.42at 0.635Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)
- +$21.07at 0.556Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03?
- +$10.79at 0.460Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?
- +$9.77at 0.400Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?
- +$5.50at 0.400Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4699999855 | $3.89 |
| 09-14 17:40 | Will CDU win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 05-03 15:47 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.057 | $5.70 |
| 05-03 15:47 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.206 | $20.60 |
| 04-23 19:35 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23? | BUY | 0.3 | $31.01 |
| 04-09 10:43 | Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? | SELL | 0.7906968 | $19.77 |
| 04-08 21:09 | Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $9.56 |
| 04-06 19:08 | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.0569999948 | $10.00 |
| 04-04 18:30 | Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) | SELL | 0.999 | $32.57 |
| 04-04 16:42 | Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) | BUY | 0.7487384821 | $24.23 |
| 04-03 21:15 | Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? | SELL | 0.99 | $24.60 |
| 04-03 18:50 | Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? | BUY | 0.5699999964 | $13.98 |
| 03-25 21:07 | Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Lehecka | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 03-24 21:56 | Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 03-11 15:49 | Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.015 | $1.50 |