richards77
0x98f115a677369800b54b847fde535a8672682b3f
- Realised P&L
- $-8.10
- Volume
- $76.26
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $2.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.425 | $2.13 | −$0.17 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.75 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? · Yes | 0.461 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? · No | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3? · Down | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.388 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.94 |
| Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.396 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.15at 0.585Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?
- +$2.89at 0.370U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
- +$2.49at 0.386Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?
- +$1.06at 0.492Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.04at 0.512Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 02:24 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 10-16 04:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 10-15 02:10 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.77 | $3.04 |
| 09-26 13:55 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | BUY | 0.6199999587 | $2.40 |
| 09-22 05:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4799999192 | $1.90 |
| 08-15 14:59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 08-12 09:07 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 08-03 06:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 07-29 03:23 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.5099999444 | $2.20 |
| 07-14 03:53 | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 05:18 | Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3959998545 | $1.60 |
| 06-24 03:17 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.50 |
| 06-08 05:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | BUY | 0.4609999096 | $1.30 |
| 06-03 04:52 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.388 | $1.94 |
| 05-20 03:19 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |