nottheworst2
0x98bd78e67b5c40f7f2e40d79d5f1db719ee3781e
- Realised P&L
- $-818.73
- Volume
- $73.1k
- Markets traded
- 731
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded731
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$400.80at 0.541Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$306.06at 0.283Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$294.63at 0.857Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
- +$188.09at 0.708UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
- +$180.09at 0.540Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 23:20 | Chargers vs. Seahawks | BUY | 0.76 | $133.57 |
| 10-02 20:22 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 10-02 15:17 | Chargers vs. Seahawks | BUY | 0.75 | $40.72 |
| 10-02 15:12 | Alabama vs. Mississippi State | BUY | 0.67 | $24.79 |
| 10-02 15:07 | Will Italy win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.87 | $76.56 |
| 10-02 04:49 | North Texas vs. Tulsa | BUY | 0.4 | $35.20 |
| 10-02 04:12 | Colts vs. Commanders | BUY | 0.36 | $42.01 |
| 10-02 04:08 | Purdue vs. Illinois | BUY | 0.77 | $80.85 |
| 10-01 22:52 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $8.10 |
| 10-01 22:23 | Will Coventry City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? | SELL | 0.63 | $37.80 |
| 10-01 22:21 | Penn State vs. Northwestern | BUY | 0.57 | $16.30 |
| 10-01 22:11 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 10-01 20:24 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $3.30 |
| 10-01 20:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $12.42 |
| 10-01 19:40 | Will Greece vs. Netherlands end in a draw? | BUY | 0.87 | $47.85 |