Urus12
0x98aeed3fc3acd797ee6754d7bf61a5dd9a025bd2
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $38.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $953.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.644 | 0.790 | $953.55 | +$176.66 |
| Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.74 |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? · No | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$159.99 |
| Iran strike on Israel before November? · No | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$321.00 |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.70 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$86.10 |
| Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.579Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$290.90at 0.723Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times during his Nevada rally?
- +$171.37at 0.745Will Trump say "abortion" during his Nevada rally?
- +$170.49at 0.168Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
- +$137.85at 0.879Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 10:13 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.66 | $66.00 |
| 09-18 15:24 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $365.59 |
| 09-15 09:06 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.72 | $115.20 |
| 08-28 16:45 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $68.00 |
| 08-28 16:40 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $23.56 |
| 08-28 16:39 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.651144756 | $200.00 |
| 08-18 15:07 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.14 | $28.70 |
| 08-18 14:21 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.80 |
| 08-18 13:36 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.42 | $86.10 |
| 11-06 08:08 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.994 | $4.3k |
| 11-04 21:02 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5789999999 | $2.5k |
| 10-17 08:43 | Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 15:01 | Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | BUY | 0.032 | $50.00 |
| 10-16 14:46 | Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | BUY | 0.016 | $50.00 |
| 10-16 14:45 | Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | BUY | 0.015 | $50.00 |