0x98A84852204D183557eCBA8f6Ee03419392059b0-1755311847367
0x98a84852204d183557ecba8f6ee03419392059b0
- Realised P&L
- $193.38
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $38.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$247.17at 0.471Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
- +$70.70at 0.321Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
- +$61.13at 0.831Maduro out by December 31, 2026?
- +$58.59at 0.170Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?
- +$29.73at 0.140Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 15:14 | Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9564467976 | $35.00 |
| 08-21 18:16 | Evo Morales arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.9706045415 | $10.00 |
| 06-19 23:02 | Evo Morales arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.9262114807 | $100.00 |
| 05-23 04:38 | Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by June 30? | BUY | 0.2099999902 | $15.00 |
| 03-23 23:48 | Will Richard Andrés Gómez win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.04 |
| 03-23 03:22 | Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.05 |
| 03-23 03:22 | Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.24 |
| 03-23 03:22 | Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.36 |
| 03-23 01:10 | Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.7689999923 | $10.00 |
| 03-22 21:24 | Will Richard Andrés Gómez win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.1690413224 | $3.00 |
| 03-22 21:17 | Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.3799999945 | $25.00 |
| 03-18 01:22 | Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.1274719799 | $3.00 |
| 03-18 01:19 | Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election? | BUY | 0.0041875755 | $1.00 |
| 03-18 01:18 | Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9289999995 | $100.00 |
| 03-18 01:15 | Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? | BUY | 0.0336711425 | $12.00 |