a-g-e-n-t-s
0x9845b1be2bdbc36ab73eb4b4d8ac4ca3c58cbbc2
- Realised P&L
- $-121.50
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $9.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Romero win the 2026 Henderson mayoral election? · No | 0.290 | 0.135 | $6.10 | −$7.01 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? · No | 0.760 | 0.755 | $3.00 | −$0.02 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.19 |
| Will Artyom Zdunov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections? · No | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.22at 0.090Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
- +$10.31at 0.330Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
- +$6.20at 0.190Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
- +$4.96at 0.789Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$3.97at 0.463Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 14:17 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.707 | $3.53 |
| 07-30 14:17 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.294 | $1.47 |
| 07-30 09:45 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.24 | $15.79 |
| 07-30 03:40 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.68 | $19.79 |
| 07-29 22:00 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.6 | $9.37 |
| 07-29 15:55 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $24.24 |
| 07-29 09:50 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $36.11 |
| 07-28 03:55 | Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | SELL | 0.43 | $19.49 |
| 07-28 00:30 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $5.39 |
| 07-27 18:25 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $7.09 |
| 07-25 19:40 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $31.70 |
| 07-25 13:35 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $6.86 |
| 07-25 07:05 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | SELL | 0.13 | $13.44 |
| 07-24 21:25 | Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | SELL | 0.77 | $24.45 |
| 07-24 19:50 | Team Spoon vs. Team Coop: O/U 279.5 | SELL | 0.46 | $15.57 |