0x982ed75c7E249E08f4E24636c220833660536aaE-1722744745083
0x982ed75c7e249e08f4e24636c220833660536aae
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $7.0k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $62.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.328 | 0.068 | $38.06 | −$145.26 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.378 | 0.245 | $21.41 | −$11.59 |
| Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.002 | $2.54 | −$315.71 |
| Chiefs vs. Cowboys · Chiefs | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.50 |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? · No | 0.656 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$220.00 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$218.75 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November? · No | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$108.92at 0.840Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$40.85at 0.710Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$33.34at 0.360Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$28.78at 0.410Packers vs. Lions
- +$20.30at 0.330Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 16:59 | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.8299999995 | $218.75 |
| 05-02 04:08 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3776243923 | $33.00 |
| 02-03 05:43 | Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1887374259 | $218.25 |
| 02-03 05:43 | Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999983 | $100.00 |
| 02-03 05:43 | Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1857202609 | $100.00 |
| 02-03 05:40 | Ethereum flipped in 2026? | BUY | 0.6560636179 | $100.00 |
| 02-03 05:38 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.7592593463 | $516.66 |
| 01-24 01:28 | First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | SELL | 0.006 | $1.59 |
| 01-20 11:47 | Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999979 | $83.32 |
| 01-20 11:42 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.6 | $83.33 |
| 01-13 14:03 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999999 | $530.78 |
| 01-04 05:01 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 01-04 05:00 | First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | BUY | 0.3774975669 | $100.00 |
| 12-14 04:22 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8399999999 | $571.85 |
| 11-27 11:51 | Chiefs vs. Cowboys | BUY | 0.63 | $31.50 |