MX123
0x982ac14bc650021df281e1485e0cb5f91241f47a
- Realised P&L
- $-132.33
- Volume
- $24.2k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $17.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$334.01at 0.230Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
- +$157.69at 0.390Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$90.60at 0.680Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$89.08at 0.744Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$79.31at 0.580Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 15:41 | Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2482701159 | $10.00 |
| 07-23 17:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.0209999986 | $15.00 |
| 07-19 22:09 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $96.36 |
| 07-19 19:23 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0999599494 | $30.00 |
| 07-19 19:21 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6219999994 | $60.00 |
| 07-19 19:17 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9880336949 | $290.59 |
| 06-26 16:52 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2197183099 | $39.00 |
| 06-17 20:17 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.679999999 | $200.00 |
| 06-17 20:14 | Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? | BUY | 0.0261666358 | $9.88 |
| 06-17 20:13 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0477137132 | $10.00 |
| 06-17 20:12 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? | BUY | 0.0247346534 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 13:57 | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999965 | $40.00 |
| 06-14 13:55 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.0331716394 | $26.62 |
| 06-10 20:55 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.0436200557 | $35.00 |
| 06-08 21:04 | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $6.88 |