rusk81
0x981b5e5a5c26d8a153953230ee80ccfccffbf642
- Realised P&L
- $33.11
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $15.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.021 | $15.75 | −$3.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.93at 0.769Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?
- +$19.00at 0.050US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$6.79at 0.340US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$6.14at 0.140US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$5.51at 0.706Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 08:27 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.35 |
| 09-29 04:53 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.35 |
| 09-28 17:01 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.027 | $2.70 |
| 09-28 05:01 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.026 | $13.00 |
| 09-12 03:44 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.23 |
| 09-12 03:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $7.71 |
| 09-11 11:57 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.01 |
| 09-11 11:57 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $143.73 |
| 09-09 03:01 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.71 | $21.29 |
| 09-09 02:25 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.20 |
| 09-09 02:24 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.20 |
| 09-08 18:29 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.68 | $17.67 |
| 09-06 06:46 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.63 | $29.61 |
| 09-04 11:11 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.0218440231 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 02:46 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.59 | $30.68 |