schaar22
0x98009f2643e45c779b892b7de6ac868455fe9a33
- Realised P&L
- $-324.99
- Volume
- $10.3k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $265.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.830 | $39.45 | +$4.75 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.700 | $39.17 | +$4.48 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.815 | $38.70 | +$1.19 |
| Will Helder win the most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.880 | $38.53 | +$3.50 |
| Will Eduardo Braga win the most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.655 | $29.09 | −$5.55 |
| Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? · Yes | 0.584 | 0.475 | $28.75 | −$6.61 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.340 | $27.17 | −$7.19 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.935 | $24.87 | +$3.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$95.33at 0.361Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
- +$68.36at 0.562Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?
- +$56.00at 0.536Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?
- +$41.52at 0.617Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
- +$37.02at 0.638Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 16:30 | Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | BUY | 0.5842177433 | $35.36 |
| 09-29 14:03 | Will Eduardo Braga win the most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election? | BUY | 0.78 | $34.64 |
| 09-28 13:44 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? | BUY | 0.62 | $34.70 |
| 09-27 13:25 | Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election? | BUY | 0.73 | $34.70 |
| 09-24 11:48 | Will Helder win the most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election? | BUY | 0.8 | $35.02 |
| 09-23 11:35 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | BUY | 0.43 | $34.36 |
| 09-16 10:35 | Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.469 | $29.80 |
| 09-14 09:51 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.6801523297 | $30.36 |
| 09-10 09:00 | Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m? | BUY | 0.26 | $29.77 |
| 09-08 08:27 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | BUY | 0.4034475375 | $37.68 |
| 09-07 08:10 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.5092264101 | $38.64 |
| 09-06 07:54 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.79 | $37.52 |
| 09-05 07:28 | Will Kim Ahern be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.28 | $36.50 |
| 09-04 07:00 | Will Stephen Skoly be the RI-02 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.8 | $38.12 |
| 09-02 06:36 | Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? | BUY | 0.75 | $38.03 |