Stephen4453
0x97ac3d3683d85b5fd202c671aaf763e1fd15a657
- Realised P&L
- $-16.75
- Volume
- $17.8k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $21.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tarris Reed Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $15.49 | −$0.01 |
| Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $3.50 | −$0.00 |
| Will Brayden Burries win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $3.00 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.47at 0.630Solana above $190 on February 14?
- +$0.40at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
- +$0.26at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?
- +$0.26at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?
- +$0.25at 0.998Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 03:46 | Will Tarris Reed Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.50 |
| 09-10 19:43 | Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.29 |
| 09-08 07:34 | Will Karim López win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | SELL | 0.998 | $10.29 |
| 09-08 07:33 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.999 | $14.71 |
| 09-06 14:30 | Will Brayden Burries win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.997 | $3.00 |
| 09-03 21:58 | Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.50 |
| 08-31 17:42 | Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.30 |
| 08-25 18:40 | Will Karim López win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.30 |
| 08-13 08:23 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.70 |
| 08-12 06:45 | Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.992 | $6.25 |
| 08-12 06:44 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $6.69 |
| 08-12 06:42 | Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.996 | $6.89 |
| 08-12 06:41 | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.997 | $11.39 |
| 08-08 16:22 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.70 |
| 07-30 21:53 | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.40 |