tibellium
0x973c645a16cc13ce87a6be0f5f20344ba6cdcfc0
- Realised P&L
- $-69.08
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $283.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.784 | $192.97 | −$7.03 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.710 | $90.96 | −$9.04 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET · Up | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? · No | 0.503 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.13at 0.751Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
- +$13.68at 0.887Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.99at 0.925Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?
- +$1.73at 0.787Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
- +$1.11at 0.991Will Claude be restored for international customers by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 11:55 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7805334747 | $100.00 |
| 09-22 11:54 | Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8125718453 | $200.00 |
| 07-24 16:33 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.4269999965 | $30.81 |
| 07-24 16:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.5839999998 | $40.00 |
| 07-01 00:04 | Will Claude be restored for international customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.9905515988 | $121.00 |
| 06-30 15:13 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8829471496 | $107.00 |
| 06-12 16:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | BUY | 0.5199999908 | $25.00 |
| 06-09 12:11 | Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? | BUY | 0.7437432197 | $99.09 |
| 04-24 12:08 | Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480? | SELL | 0.86 | $21.85 |
| 04-24 12:07 | Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500? | SELL | 0.09 | $4.14 |
| 04-23 15:39 | Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500? | BUY | 0.4866229268 | $21.91 |
| 04-23 15:39 | Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480? | BUY | 0.7799999938 | $19.65 |
| 04-23 15:39 | Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999994 | $59.62 |
| 04-23 15:27 | Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999966 | $13.45 |
| 04-23 15:26 | Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500? | SELL | 0.28 | $13.92 |