Thibaud
0x970aa613c436d3763cbd0719978d941824d37016
- Realised P&L
- $-53.1k
- Volume
- $639.6k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $22.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.153 | $10.9k | +$912.76 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.423 | 0.403 | $8.8k | −$446.30 |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.201 | $2.8k | −$244.50 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.365 | $64.46 | −$18.54 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.582 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.021Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$69.03at 0.663Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$-32.08at 0.011Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
- +$-121.78at 0.660Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$-132.56at 0.013Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 17:49 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4699999992 | $83.00 |
| 10-28 17:49 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.266 | $82.22 |
| 10-27 15:46 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.6599734062 | $204.00 |
| 10-12 19:26 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6559999998 | $134.28 |
| 10-05 19:35 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4228480101 | $9.3k |
| 10-05 15:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $25.00 |
| 10-05 15:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 10-05 15:02 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1406618834 | $10.0k |
| 10-05 14:57 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2187517323 | $3.0k |
| 10-05 14:54 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.4385099791 | $23.4k |
| 09-29 14:27 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4053864164 | $12.2k |
| 09-29 14:27 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4209635163 | $9.8k |
| 09-29 13:55 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5823798868 | $11.2k |
| 09-17 16:24 | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0259999999 | $346.60 |
| 09-13 09:58 | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0189999998 | $100.00 |