0x96f7c125daebc2ddd5bd2a4753c21c9ed3c37be1
0x96f7c125daebc2ddd5bd2a4753c21c9ed3c37be1
- Realised P&L
- $14.64
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.018 | $1.23 | −$0.29 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.001 | $0.10 | −$12.04 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 12? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.80 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.60 |
| Will Serbia win on 2026-09-27? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.50at 0.136Will Greece win on 2026-09-27?
- +$0.08at 0.992Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.02at 0.957Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- +$-1.57at 0.156Will North Macedonia win on 2026-09-29?
- +$-2.83at 0.361Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 14:32 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.0216238571 | $1.51 |
| 09-28 18:30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.0607224 | $12.14 |
| 09-28 07:32 | Will North Macedonia win on 2026-09-29? | SELL | 0.14 | $9.80 |
| 09-28 07:29 | Will Croatia win on 2026-09-29? | SELL | 0.06 | $16.20 |
| 09-28 01:44 | Will Croatia win on 2026-09-29? | BUY | 0.07 | $18.90 |
| 09-28 01:37 | Will North Macedonia win on 2026-09-29? | BUY | 0.15 | $10.50 |
| 09-27 14:51 | Will Greece win on 2026-09-27? | BUY | 0.13 | $9.10 |
| 09-27 14:50 | Will Serbia win on 2026-09-27? | BUY | 0.13 | $9.10 |
| 09-24 17:34 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.16 | $0.80 |
| 09-24 07:19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-20 01:31 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.956 | $4.78 |
| 09-19 01:34 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.955 | $4.77 |
| 09-15 07:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 09-12 07:18 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 12? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 09-11 13:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.70 |