0x96aB0483deeF501cD75E8A2365FDA2b3a36a0442-1731157920492
0x96ab0483deef501cd75e8a2365fda2b3a36a0442
- Realised P&L
- $-352.99
- Volume
- $27.0k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $20.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.025 | $13.78 | −$6.22 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.043 | $4.09 | −$11.91 |
| Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? · Yes | 0.201 | 0.050 | $2.33 | −$7.16 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.11at 0.380Bitcoin all time high by March 31?
- +$18.40at 0.360LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$7.06at 0.680US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$5.56at 0.780WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
- +$5.07at 0.510LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-06 09:22 | Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? | BUY | 0.2012996151 | $9.49 |
| 06-03 11:49 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $6.00 |
| 06-03 11:46 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.00 |
| 03-03 05:09 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 3? | BUY | 0.0689999611 | $1.61 |
| 03-02 15:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? | BUY | 0.0138613862 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 15:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0359999933 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 15:31 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.6799999873 | $15.00 |
| 02-26 06:01 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999913 | $16.00 |
| 01-25 04:08 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.25 | $20.00 |
| 01-22 04:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? | BUY | 0.01 | $2.00 |
| 01-22 04:53 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | BUY | 0.0369999983 | $20.00 |
| 01-15 05:16 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.054999995 | $10.00 |
| 11-13 05:04 | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | BUY | 0.0246815287 | $7.75 |
| 11-11 10:50 | Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | BUY | 0.0389999963 | $10.00 |
| 11-11 10:49 | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | BUY | 0.0459999957 | $10.00 |