Olrefand2
0x969bb58ebc0ea8f6a1c63053f8a1164b1215db70
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $696.5k
- Markets traded
- 148
- Open portfolio
- $52.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded148
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.005Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5
- +$908.69at 0.014Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$515.04at 0.004Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
- +$132.73at 0.011Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
- +$99.32at 0.012Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-13 14:48 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.010789152 | $26.97 |
| 05-13 14:48 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.007 | $70.00 |
| 05-13 14:48 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $14.29 |
| 05-13 14:47 | Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $138.10 |
| 05-13 14:47 | Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $116.67 |
| 05-13 14:47 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $183.33 |
| 05-13 13:01 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 11:27 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 07:30 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 06:43 | Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 05:56 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 04:25 | Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-12 23:57 | Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-12 20:51 | Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |
| 05-12 20:04 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $20.00 |