PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Olrefand2

0x969bb58ebc0ea8f6a1c63053f8a1164b1215db70

Realised P&L
$1.4k
Volume
$696.5k
Markets traded
148
Open portfolio
$52.16

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded148
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample28 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0020.006$18.07+$12.05
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0020.002$15.00$5.00
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.0030.002$10.00$10.00
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? · Yes0.0090.005$8.95$5.69
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0120.005$0.14$0.17
Bucaramanga: Valerio Aboian vs Garrett Johns · Valerio Aboian0.0110.000$0.00$20.00
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Quentin Halys · Halys0.0110.000$0.00$20.00
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Team Sprint Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? · Yes0.0060.000$0.00$0.03
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026? · No0.0120.000$0.00$20.00
Argentina Open: Tomas Barrios vs Thiago Seyboth Wild · Wild0.0110.000$0.00$20.00
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 17? · No0.0110.000$0.00$20.00
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? · No0.0080.000$0.00$4.74
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan Wawrinka · Stan Wawrinka0.0150.000$0.00$20.00
Santa Cruz: Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian · Facundo Mena0.0010.000$0.00$17.32
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-13 14:48Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.010789152$26.97
05-13 14:48Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.007$70.00
05-13 14:48Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.005$14.29
05-13 14:47Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.005$138.10
05-13 14:47Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.005$116.67
05-13 14:47Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.005$183.33
05-13 13:01Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-13 11:27Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-13 07:30Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-13 06:43Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-13 05:56Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-13 04:25Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-12 23:57Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-12 20:51Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00
05-12 20:04Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.006$20.00