carlpena
0x96786c8772c1c1a254341ccd3d2ff515080a6c70
- Realised P&L
- $-32.98
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $81.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will “Safe” by Cardi B featuring Kehlani win Best Hip-Hop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.710 | $33.82 | +$1.43 |
| Spread: Vikings (-1.5) · Buccaneers | 0.520 | 0.515 | $27.21 | −$0.26 |
| Asian Games Men: Japan vs Nepal · Nepal | 0.830 | 0.670 | $20.87 | −$4.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.69at 0.730Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
- +$5.05at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July?
- +$0.67at 0.980Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
- +$0.67at 0.982Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?
- +$0.38at 0.984Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:45 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.57 |
| 01-30 16:59 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $8.93 |
| 01-30 16:35 | Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.02 |
| 01-30 14:27 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999361 | $12.32 |
| 01-30 14:25 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $46.84 |
| 12-30 11:49 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.49 |
| 12-30 11:20 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.72 |
| 12-30 10:39 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.23 |
| 12-30 09:36 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.63 |
| 12-30 00:05 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.73 |
| 12-29 22:27 | Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.53 |
| 10-30 23:17 | Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9839999997 | $23.26 |
| 10-30 20:06 | Will Solana dip to $120 in October? | BUY | 0.9989999593 | $22.08 |
| 09-29 16:42 | Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999298 | $11.77 |
| 09-29 15:47 | Will Solana reach $270 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999296 | $12.75 |