orangutan51
0x96697a4f31208e8cba5025f4672b6a0c12fb44da
- Realised P&L
- $-5.16
- Volume
- $214.77
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $84.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.09at 0.914Will FC Metz win on 2026-09-05?
- +$0.07at 0.996Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?
- +$0.05at 0.971Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.04at 0.962Will Susan R. Anderbois be the Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic nominee?
- +$0.04at 0.965Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.4%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:56 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.00 |
| 09-17 18:55 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.00 |
| 09-17 02:33 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | SELL | 0.988 | $1.01 |
| 09-17 01:43 | Will the earnings call not air? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.00 |
| 09-17 01:41 | Will Big Brother episode not air? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.00 |
| 09-17 01:39 | Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $18.00 |
| 09-16 22:56 | Will Big Brother episode not air? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.00 |
| 09-16 22:54 | Will Trump's remarks not air? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.00 |
| 09-16 22:47 | Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.00 |
| 09-15 17:18 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | BUY | 0.9789999883 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 17:08 | Will Green Party (MP) win less than 5% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.01 |
| 09-14 21:19 | Will Kyle Campbell win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election? | BUY | 0.9849994435 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 21:02 | Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.02 |
| 09-13 23:25 | Will Björn Tenland Nurhadi be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:21 | Will Centre Party (C) win less than 5% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.01 |