kayps
0x962064f610ed58a82bed547835e4cc9964b5ed47
- Realised P&L
- $-51.69
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $84.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.78at 0.270Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday?
- +$29.90at 0.773Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?
- +$24.00at 0.294US-EU trade agreement by July 9?
- +$19.40at 0.432US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
- +$17.58at 0.530Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 07:06 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.1699999997 | $20.00 |
| 10-06 07:06 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? | BUY | 0.1346153842 | $20.00 |
| 10-06 07:00 | Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31? | BUY | 0.0940733772 | $30.00 |
| 10-06 07:00 | Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30? | BUY | 0.0599550337 | $40.00 |
| 09-21 15:17 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September? | BUY | 0.7599999964 | $100.00 |
| 06-03 15:46 | Will Adam Sandler attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 15:45 | Will Spike Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0498480465 | $6.00 |
| 06-03 15:45 | Will Timothee Chalamet attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0346536715 | $5.00 |
| 05-02 15:16 | Chirayu Rana divorced? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 05-02 15:15 | Chirayu Rana sued? | BUY | 0.1199999952 | $20.00 |
| 05-02 15:15 | Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? | BUY | 0.069895151 | $10.00 |
| 02-16 08:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3AM ET | BUY | 0.8099999977 | $50.00 |
| 12-18 01:13 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | SELL | 0.991 | $10.53 |
| 12-18 01:13 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SELL | 0.9901157168 | $34.40 |
| 07-27 16:46 | Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? | SELL | 0.62 | $6.73 |