0x9586E08502c66D7814B97d59CaAb04B6Be8Dc022-1777957540311
0x9586e08502c66d7814b97d59caab04b6be8dc022
- Realised P&L
- $-197.50
- Volume
- $13.0k
- Markets traded
- 639
- Open portfolio
- $4.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded639
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fufuca win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.230 | $4.60 | −$1.60 |
| Will Barry Avotu Johnson win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.009 | $0.19 | −$3.61 |
| GTA VI released by September 30? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.004 | $0.08 | −$3.92 |
| Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.77 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.50at 0.645Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
- +$32.50at 0.350Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
- +$20.50at 0.330Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
- +$20.00at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
- +$11.40at 0.120Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 13:17 | Will Marília Arraes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election? | SELL | 0.162 | $3.24 |
| 08-23 13:16 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 08-23 12:26 | Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $37.00 |
| 08-23 11:56 | Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 08-23 11:08 | Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 08-23 09:43 | Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $10.40 |
| 08-23 09:36 | Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 08-23 09:12 | Will Marcel Van Hattem win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election? | SELL | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 08-23 04:31 | Will valve announce no hero as the new hero at The International 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $4.60 |
| 08-23 04:22 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $1.80 |
| 08-23 03:51 | Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? | SELL | 0.59 | $11.80 |
| 08-23 03:29 | Will Filipe Barros win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 08-23 03:14 | Will Weverton Rocha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | SELL | 0.62 | $8.68 |
| 08-23 03:14 | Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 08-23 03:14 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.41 | $18.86 |