0x95778F11FE15ef2Bb0f31A1E65068FE9caD6E92C-1767886029461
0x95778f11fe15ef2bb0f31a1e65068fe9cad6e92c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $28.4k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $31.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.033 | $18.33 | −$31.67 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.045 | $12.86 | −$87.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$170.27at 0.370Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$-1.00at 0.002Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 30 and 31 million views on day 1?
- +$-1.00at 0.270Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
- +$-1.00at 0.006Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get 35 million or more views on day 1?
- +$-1.00at 0.003Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get less than 30 million views on day 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-10 19:33 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | BUY | 0.0599830804 | $70.00 |
| 03-05 21:18 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | BUY | 0.003 | $50.00 |
| 03-02 22:05 | Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? | BUY | 0.0797865868 | $50.00 |
| 03-02 22:00 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $100.00 |
| 01-09 15:01 | Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 01-08 19:24 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2692393965 | $80.00 |
| 01-08 19:23 | Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 32 and 33 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 01-08 19:23 | Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get less than 30 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 01-08 19:23 | Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 30 and 31 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.0021761246 | $1.00 |
| 01-08 19:23 | Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get 35 million or more views on day 1? | BUY | 0.0060000001 | $1.00 |
| 01-08 15:48 | Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999985 | $50.00 |
| 01-08 15:43 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3499999986 | $100.00 |
| 01-08 15:43 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.369999998 | $100.00 |
| 01-08 15:38 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999999 | $1.5k |