lemonmeo
0x9553e6c729e5d2b230a10bfcedaa054bb4a7deae
- Realised P&L
- $-331.21
- Volume
- $164.2k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.895 | $2.1k | +$921.53 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.720 | $588.15 | −$24.51 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.500 | 0.105 | $244.97 | −$921.53 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.983 | $98.30 | +$7.30 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.775 | $73.80 | −$4.24 |
| Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.982 | $53.98 | +$2.28 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.982 | 0.971 | $33.97 | −$0.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$117.53at 0.007Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$92.30at 0.748Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
- +$24.06at 0.750SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?
- +$18.76at 0.104Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- +$7.86at 0.098Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 07:39 | Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV? | SELL | 0.02 | $6.00 |
| 09-09 07:38 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.7 | $41.99 |
| 09-09 07:38 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.23 |
| 09-09 03:30 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 09-09 03:30 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 09-09 03:23 | Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV? | BUY | 0.021 | $6.30 |
| 09-09 03:21 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $15.60 |
| 09-02 10:55 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $78.04 |
| 08-12 15:03 | Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? | SELL | 0.0151867239 | $1.63 |
| 08-12 15:03 | Will Trump say "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" during remarks in New York? | SELL | 0.03084625 | $24.68 |
| 08-12 07:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.0111955833 | $9.04 |
| 08-12 07:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.0113028866 | $17.26 |
| 08-12 07:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.012160874 | $44.46 |
| 08-12 06:23 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.018 | $3.65 |
| 08-12 06:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.0160289906 | $18.31 |