0x952d49a1d9c61384d7cd1faeb441175a59e58f66
0x952d49a1d9c61384d7cd1faeb441175a59e58f66
- Realised P&L
- $8.42
- Volume
- $52.12
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $6.05
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar16.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.935 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.835 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.755 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? · No | 0.750 | 0.620 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.285 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.435 | $0.54 | −$0.46 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.255 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.360 | 0.038 | $0.11 | −$0.89 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.81at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.24at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$1.06at 0.492Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 22:14 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 01:59 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 08:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 22:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 10:16 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 02:15 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 18:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 07:48 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:45 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:43 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 15:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 07:10 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 10:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:56 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |