0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f
- Realised P&L
- $32.8k
- Volume
- $556.8k
- Markets traded
- 1,793
- Open portfolio
- $11.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,793
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.7kat 0.289Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 19?
- +$3.5kat 0.325Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on September 16?
- +$1.7kat 0.348Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on September 5?
- +$1.5kat 0.601Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 18?
- +$1.4kat 0.452Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 10:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.8432605059 | $66.54 |
| 09-21 10:00 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.2787753825 | $185.62 |
| 09-21 10:00 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.4008351006 | $100.17 |
| 09-21 10:00 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.5192828193 | $36.34 |
| 09-21 09:21 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.7736705025 | $262.58 |
| 09-21 08:21 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.4972525838 | $262.38 |
| 09-21 08:21 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.8323652651 | $232.22 |
| 09-21 08:01 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.2502589777 | $46.83 |
| 09-21 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.3733764633 | $132.01 |
| 09-21 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.4996433131 | $168.37 |
| 09-21 07:32 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.2759624018 | $22.22 |
| 09-21 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.469999995 | $8.44 |
| 09-21 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.4409108914 | $101.89 |
| 09-21 05:21 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.6573325897 | $119.33 |
| 09-21 04:31 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.647381139 | $37.08 |