LaBascule
0x949b19b99ca36f8f8dc52e4b45f1f0875219b285
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $484.4k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $573.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $450.00 | −$131.09 |
| Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.856 | 0.956 | $123.34 | +$12.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$557.30at 0.141Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$201.37at 0.597Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
- +$129.67at 0.158Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?
- +$76.76at 0.765Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
- +$27.59at 0.836Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:04 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.925 | $693.75 |
| 09-13 09:38 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9121421467 | $684.11 |
| 09-03 04:11 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $27.73 |
| 09-03 04:07 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $44.10 |
| 09-03 04:07 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $40.32 |
| 09-03 04:07 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $51.37 |
| 09-03 04:07 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $42.54 |
| 09-03 04:07 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $21.68 |
| 08-24 16:42 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $160.00 |
| 08-24 05:23 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $40.00 |
| 08-24 04:58 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.031 | $9.75 |
| 08-24 04:57 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.032 | $197.93 |
| 08-24 04:49 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $51.92 |
| 08-24 04:47 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $73.00 |
| 08-07 21:28 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $8.60 |