defectual
0x945c2dff4414d310602ed5f941c519685de4a177
- Realised P&L
- $-9.57
- Volume
- $6.0k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $0.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.45at 0.187Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 15?
- +$3.19at 0.361Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on September 15?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 14?
- +$1.99at 0.602Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 16?
- +$1.59at 0.788Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 13:56 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.46 | $5.98 |
| 09-16 13:02 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on September 16? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.36 |
| 09-16 11:00 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.31 |
| 09-16 11:00 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.15 |
| 09-16 06:02 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on September 16? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.87 |
| 09-16 05:53 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on September 16? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.90 |
| 09-16 05:25 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 05:13 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.008 | $2.98 |
| 09-16 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.04 | $0.80 |
| 09-15 23:06 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.88 |
| 09-15 23:06 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.09 |
| 09-15 23:04 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C or below on September 16? | BUY | 0.005 | $3.23 |
| 09-15 21:56 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $5.85 |
| 09-15 21:09 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.96 | $6.00 |
| 09-15 20:42 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |