0x945bfe485b725f78b28b3bf836d4d0de9d6ea9f6
0x945bfe485b725f78b28b3bf836d4d0de9d6ea9f6
- Realised P&L
- $-14.80
- Volume
- $188.97
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $1.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? · No | 0.700 | 0.660 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.66at 0.359Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$2.30at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
- +$1.85at 0.520US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 10:53 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 02:52 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:01 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 07:39 | Will Trump say "Board of Trade" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 23:39 | Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 15:38 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 07:34 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 23? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 23:18 | Will Costco say "Expansion" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 13:30 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 00:04 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 11:55 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 03:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 17:48 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 17:39 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 06:48 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |