0x944a37b1aa9cad2cca7ad4afa7f477158a4aaf0e
- Realised P&L
- $-33.89
- Volume
- $979.80
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $4.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)15.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.075 | $2.78 | −$7.22 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.115 | $1.64 | −$3.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.23at 0.260Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.41at 0.587Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?
- +$-1.00at 0.450Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
- +$-1.00at 0.700US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$-1.00at 0.002Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-05 11:58 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0939999692 | $2.68 |
| 05-17 07:11 | Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | BUY | 0.0699999797 | $3.00 |
| 05-16 22:05 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.85 |
| 05-14 15:19 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | BUY | 0.5799998533 | $3.40 |
| 05-13 21:59 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.4299999829 | $10.84 |
| 05-13 21:55 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.3399999564 | $4.84 |
| 02-07 10:05 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 02-07 10:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $4.76 |
| 01-29 20:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999858 | $9.00 |
| 01-29 20:32 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $4.57 |
| 01-29 20:31 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.06 |
| 01-22 16:05 | Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 01-22 15:42 | Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.1198438635 | $5.00 |
| 01-14 11:37 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 01-03 19:36 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |