david420
0x9416b0ca9df006a64def65021451caba9adf5a15
- Realised P&L
- $-25.2k
- Volume
- $3.49M
- Markets traded
- 1,354
- Open portfolio
- $14.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,354
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.740Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?
- +$3.4kat 0.373Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
- +$3.3kat 0.389Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?
- +$2.7kat 0.300MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.559Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 01:24 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.3943954333 | $4.94 |
| 09-12 01:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 01:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 01:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.489999992 | $25.00 |
| 08-01 16:20 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999983 | $28.88 |
| 07-25 01:05 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 07-25 01:05 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.5841583939 | $10.00 |
| 07-24 21:27 | Bloomfield Hills: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Andres Martin | BUY | 0.7399999896 | $10.00 |
| 07-24 19:30 | Bloomfield Hills: Jacob Fearnley vs J.J. Wolf | BUY | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 07-24 19:30 | Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 19:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 15:17 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.0186559906 | $7.00 |
| 07-24 14:21 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999743 | $7.00 |
| 07-24 14:19 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.3001549169 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 14:25 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999987 | $88.17 |