madabrs
0x9404e0d2831c51cbc05f0a159888bd0011e97cf2
- Realised P&L
- $-235.08
- Volume
- $78.1k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $128.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)11.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.085 | $68.35 | −$221.14 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.158 | 0.029 | $18.71 | −$81.29 |
| Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.011 | $14.21 | −$85.79 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.039 | $12.38 | −$105.22 |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.004 | $9.05 | −$90.95 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.013 | $5.74 | −$35.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$314.59at 0.430Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$-40.00at 0.005Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?
- +$-42.86at 0.007Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?
- +$-43.75at 0.008Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?
- +$-48.50at 0.100Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-22 07:09 | Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999981 | $41.33 |
| 02-22 07:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? | SELL | 0.001 | $5.42 |
| 02-22 07:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.93 |
| 02-22 07:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? | SELL | 0.002 | $4.02 |
| 02-22 07:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | SELL | 0.006738022 | $3.07 |
| 02-22 07:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.50 |
| 02-22 07:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? | SELL | 0.001 | $6.25 |
| 02-22 07:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? | SELL | 0.001 | $7.14 |
| 02-22 07:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | SELL | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 02-21 09:26 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3704244014 | $117.60 |
| 02-21 08:25 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999996 | $289.49 |
| 02-21 08:24 | Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1576615637 | $100.00 |
| 02-21 08:24 | Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.073910786 | $100.00 |
| 02-21 08:23 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0497134908 | $100.00 |
| 02-01 22:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | BUY | 0.2 | $91.00 |