paddapadda
0x93c27af1af72fd5bbce398abfb3790daeb8908e0
- Realised P&L
- $-181.40
- Volume
- $46.5k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.655 | 0.575 | $575.00 | −$80.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.537 | 0.435 | $478.50 | −$112.50 |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · No | 0.192 | 0.165 | $238.29 | −$38.59 |
| Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.630 | 0.615 | $122.99 | −$3.00 |
| Will any Moroccan city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.155 | $21.70 | −$8.40 |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.150 | $12.06 | −$0.80 |
| Will AVAX reach $12 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.510 | $9.35 | −$6.78 |
| Will Barcelona host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.035 | $4.83 | −$3.17 |
| Will any Portuguese city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.029 | $2.06 | −$1.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.25at 0.947Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$72.32at 0.800Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$53.00at 0.949Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$24.29at 0.804Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$17.46at 0.520SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 17:53 | Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.67 | $201.00 |
| 07-22 04:37 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 22? | SELL | 0.52 | $7.80 |
| 07-19 22:05 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.9975 | $1.1k |
| 07-19 22:00 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 07-19 21:57 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9425 | $94.25 |
| 07-06 05:26 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.22 | $11.88 |
| 07-06 05:25 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.22 | $99.88 |
| 06-25 19:14 | Will Sweden be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.012892489 | $2.63 |
| 06-25 19:09 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 06-20 08:33 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 06-20 08:33 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.8k |
| 06-20 08:33 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 06-12 12:21 | SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? | BUY | 0.2478032142 | $42.86 |
| 06-10 17:31 | SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? | SELL | 0.32 | $135.40 |
| 05-01 07:37 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.9 | $552.60 |